Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
