Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average figure of per-day killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government figures. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely important,” the President said, explaining that the previous month the lowest number of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is especially true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for assessing the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was also an issue because it could mask days when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still beset by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.