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Russian President is beginning a short trip to India, where he is set to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and participate in an yearly dialogue conducted by the two nations.

India and Moscow are expected to conclude a number of deals during the visit, which comes months after the Washington ramped up scrutiny on India to stop buying Russian energy.

It also coincides with the US President administration holding a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end the war.

India and Russia have been longtime partners for many years, and Putin and Modi have a productive connection. Here is a analysis at why they both require each other – and what to watch for as they hold talks.

A Unique Bond, Trade Deals and Global Strategy

Why are relations with India crucial for the Kremlin?

Firstly, examine the statistics:

• A citizenry of close to a one and a half billion people.
• An economy growing over 8%. India is the world's fastest growing major economy.

That establishes it as a extremely appealing market for Russian products and resources – especially petroleum.

India is the world's third biggest importer of petroleum and has been acquiring significant quantities from Russia. That was not historically the case. Before the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India's oil supplies were sourced from Moscow.

That percentage jumped to 35% as India took advantage of Russian discounted prices prompted by penalties against Moscow and Russia's curtailed access to the Western market.

India was content. Washington was displeased.

In October, the Trump administration slapped an further 25% tariff on Indian products, arguing that by purchasing oil from Russia, India was helping to fill the Kremlin's military budget. Purchases from India for Russian oil have subsequently declined. President Putin will be eager for India to maintain its imports.

For Moscow, defence sales to India are a further priority and have been from the USSR era. Prior to Putin's visit, there were reports that India plans to buy cutting-edge Russian fighter jets and air defence systems.

Russia, facing a labour shortage, also views India as a important supplier of skilled workers.

But there's geopolitics involved, too.

The Kremlin relishes showing that Western attempts to ostracize it over the war in Ukraine have not succeeded.

Flying to India and holding talks with Prime Minister Modi is a method of making that point.

So is visiting China and holding talks with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months ago. He met Modi on the very trip. The photograph of the three leaders laughing and talking with each other sent a strong statement that, regardless of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has major partners who support the notion of a "global order not dominated by the West".

Russia lauds its "no limits partnership" with China.

It is equally outspoken about its "strategic and favored strategic partnership" with India.

That is a stark opposite to Moscow's difficult rapport with the Europe.

"I think the Kremlin is convinced that the West, even Europe, completely failed," believes commentator Andrei Kolesnikov.

"We are not isolated, because we have ties to Asia and the non-Western nations. Economically, this is the future. In that sense Russia has re-emerged as the key actor in these parts of the globe, like the Soviet Union."

This week, though, anticipate to hear about Russia-India friendship, commercial pacts and increased trade relations between Moscow and Delhi.

Test of Modi's Balancing Act

Putin's visit to Delhi is occurring at a crucial time for Modi and India's global goals.

India-Russia links date back to the Cold War and have persisted irrespective of the shifting international landscape.

Putin has likely put more effort and focus into this bond than other Russian leaders in the past.

As for Modi, even after being subjected to significant pressure from US and European governments to criticise Russia over its war in Ukraine, he maintained that negotiations was the best way to resolve the war.

This was India's "strategic autonomy" being exercised – with Modi occupying a specific place in the global hierarchy where he cultivated strong ties with Moscow while keeping his rapport with the West at the same time.

That functioned – until Trump came back to the White House. India-US ties have plunged to an all-time low in recent times as the two countries have failed to resolve the duty impasse.

In this situation, Putin's visit assumes increased weight for Modi than in the past because it will challenge India's geopolitical autonomy. He will be traversing the proverbial delicate balance here.

Modi would want to show voters at home and in the international community that he yet counts Putin as his partner and has resisted influence from Trump, whom he has previously called his "close friend".

But he has also faced calls from his friends in Europe – just this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a unprecedented shared opinion piece in a major newspaper criticising Russia's position on Ukraine.

And so, Modi will have to ensure that the consolidation of India-Russia ties does not detract from continuing discussions with the US and his partnership with Europe.

"For India, the task is strategic balance – preserving independence while dealing with pressure from Washington and interdependence on Moscow," commented a local research group.

Modi's further priority will be to realize the opportunities of economic exchange between India and Russia.

Analysts have repeatedly said that the commercial ties between the two longtime friends has been below potential for many years.

Their total trade increased to $68.72bn at the end of March 2025, up from {just