Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
