The EU Presents a Membership Offer to Ukraine, But Will It Truly Become a Member?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although commanding his country during a war, is simultaneously chasing a vision for peacetime: achieving European Union membership for Ukraine as soon as possible.
Ukraine's tireless leader is increasing pressure on European Union governments to speed up the typically slow membership process. He portrays the collective struggle of Ukrainians as a fight "for the Ukrainian future, the future of Ukraine within the EU."
This aspiration of 40 million Ukrainians obtaining European status is, in theory, endorsed by the union itself. These days, hardly any meeting in the EU capital ends without Ukraine's inclusion being described as a "strategic necessity."
Such rhetoric frames Ukraine's survival and Europe's future security as two sides of the equation. Yet, for a long time after the year 2004 "big bang" that welcomed 10 ex- eastern bloc states, there was zero appetite for new members, especially not the large eastern nation. The Russian president's tanks altered the situation entirely – within a short time of the illegal 2022 attack, Kyiv had applied for, and received, "official candidate" standing. A later, European governments took the momentous step to commence accession talks with a country at war, although with no a set timeframe. Neighbouring Moldova, the former Soviet state thought to be on the Kremlin's crosshairs, vaulted to the top of the line together with Ukraine.
Last week, the EU's executive body released its official review of the progress of ten applicant countries, and placed both nations within the group of four frontrunners, alongside two Balkan states. Kaja Kallas stated it was a achievable target that these four might all be in the European Union by 2030.
Ukraine's favorable evaluation is undeniably impressive. Enemy airstrikes are devastating the nation's power infrastructure regularly, its treasury is almost depleted and millions of its people are displaced, figuratively residing in other parts of Europe. Its negotiators are often physically in bunkers. But, in EU headquarters, officials are optimistic about the massive reform effort being implemented in Kyiv even with ongoing worries about corruption. Details of an reported scandal at Ukraine's state power company are still emerging. Nevertheless, they claim, negotiations could be complete by the end of 2028. Negotiations with small Montenegro and Albania could be done by 2026 and the following year, respectively.
Major Hurdles Remain
However, there exists a stark contrast: the European Commission cannot decide who gets in. The twenty-seven current member states hold that power, and they must agree by consensus through each stage. And, currently, the Union's resident leader Viktor Orbán is blocking the official opening of negotiations with Kyiv. Since Moldova is grouped with the larger nation, it too is stuck.
All eyes are on the polls in Hungary in April, could unseat the long-serving leader. Yet some EU governments with domestic political issues may be sheltering using Hungary. With far-right groups gaining strength in major European nations and already in government in other countries, the broader environment for Ukraine's acceptance is challenging.
Experts point out a discrepancy between verbal support and actual intentions. "I doubt that many countries in the Union truly want Ukraine to be a member state, for various causes," says a close observer of the accession procedure. "And it is a great shame: because the EU would win the lottery by admitting this nation."
What Are the Challenges?
A geopolitical argument for accepting the country may be increasingly pressing in light of the Kremlin's "hybrid war" on the continent, but given its scale and intricacy, so are the diplomatic and budgetary obstacles. Once the talks are completed, approval by all the twenty-seven member states – some require referendums – is legally required for every new member. And while popular approval for Ukraine's entry is undoubtedly strong in Nordic states, 41% across the Union reject it.
Far-right parties are increasing their influence and many of them are strongly anti-European and against expansion. With Marine Le Pen's nationalist party plausibly aiming for power in the French Republic in 2027, a public vote in the country on the candidate's membership would be a struggle. Within pro-expansion states, there is anxiety about the financial implications involved, given Ukraine's economic challenges and staggering rebuilding requirements. A contentious dispute over whether to confiscate billions of immobilized Russian assets to rescue the nation before it runs out in March is still simmering. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, meanwhile, fear that their farming economies will be harmed if the large agricultural producer, a huge agricultural nation and competitor, obtains access for farm subsidies.
Enlargement in general, it is feared, could destabilise instead of consolidating the Union, until institutional reforms are first implemented to avoid gridlock in a union of over thirty members. However that could take a long time.
Hearts, Minds and Trojan Horses
Officials in the EU capital may have creative solutions to the Hungarian leader's blockade such as "front-loading", where discussions could begin unofficially until Budapest's veto is lifted.
Discussions are underway, too, of writing strict new regulatory guarantees and lengthy transition phases into new accession treaties to reassure sceptics. No one desires new member states that on paper seem to operate the rule of law, but who prove to be "Trojan horses" to the bloc.
Public relations efforts and "narratives" to win the hearts and minds of the public in all the existing countries and the candidate nations are planned. It is clear, though, that creating expectations and then leaving many people in limbo indefinitely carries risks. As the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, who in September overcame Russian meddling to achieve a impressive pro-EU electoral win, cautions recently: "Should we fail to deliver in the next three years … then what will be the signal to the people?"
Zelenskyy used an in-depth interview to highlight the dangers of Moscow going to war against a different European country before the Ukraine war concludes. He also stressed the nation's strength at a critical moment, and his deep affection for his fellow Ukrainians. "I think that
