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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a resolute stance regarding Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin carried on blocking peace negotiations, he finally imposed considerable penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially hindered Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European involvement, he has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Invasion

This proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal in reality compromise that same autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will please the ruler. However, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a damaged region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to weaken it so it no longer serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Giveaways

Although keeping in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's proposal would force the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its military have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv should he later choose to renew the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their existing large number personnel to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal imposes no similar limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as radicals, the plan states: "Any radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, Trump imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has broken comparable agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of captured land in the region to Kyiv – why should we believe Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on external security guarantees. While the initiative promises a "decisive joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not just prevent the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, effectively preventing the security presence, likely led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Concern

Another parallel deal according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. But unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, something they have {not