US Military Buildup off Venezuela Shoreline Stirs Echoes of 1989's Panamanian Military Intervention

Using night-vision gear, Mike Durant viewed as 2 2,000-pound precision explosives impacted onto the Panama's airbase while he floated near the country's south shoreline in a military aircraft.

"The enormous explosion, coming after a boom ... comparable to the biggest lightning bolt flash you've ever witnessed in your lifetime," the retired American army pilot recalled of the initial attack of the Battle of Rio Hato Air Base in December 1989.

Historical Parallels

The covert aircraft assault and following army ranger assault marked the commencement of the Panama invasion - intended to remove Panama's military leader, Manuel Noriega.

The pilot and his colleagues had orders to seize the Panama's Defense Force base to block troops arriving to the dictator's defense. Over the subsequent days, the aviator and over 25,000 other American troops sought the autocrat, who eventually gave up on 3 January 1990.

"The dictator was a terrible man ... and he needed to be ousted," commented Durant.

Current Armed Forces Movements

Memories of the Panama operation have reemerged in recent weeks' time after President Trump authorized the largest American armed forces buildup in the region and the Caribbean since that operation nearly four decades prior.

A seventh of US navy forces - featuring the planet's biggest naval vessel, the USS Gerald R Ford - have been sent to the area since last August, with B-52 bombers and special forces seen near Venezuela's north coast. Air strikes on alleged drug vessels in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean have killed over 60 people.

Official vs Suspected Goals

Formally, the positioning of naval vessels, Reaper unmanned aircraft and about 10,000 service troops is part of a crackdown on South American criminal organizations who the administration accuses of saturating the US with narcotics. But many believe the administration's real goal is toppling Venezuela's dictator, Nicolás Maduro, like George HW Bush ousted Noriega prior to he was tried and imprisoned in the US.

Opposition Viewpoints

Various members of Venezuelan opposition seem enthusiastic for a repeat of the Panama operation, on an even more greater magnitude. The overseas political figure Leopoldo López in recent times voiced support for a US intervention to remove Maduro, who is commonly considered to have stolen recent presidential vote.

"It's not to be the bearer of negative information, but it looks like we are about to start on another regime change war, like, the coming week's time," declared commentator Carlson last week, mentioning Iraq as a prime example of the United States' ignominious track record of government overthrows gone wrong.

"It rarely works - but we are pursuing it once more, apparently," Carlson added.

Public and Specialist Perspective

A recent poll found nearly 50% of Americans resistant to utilizing armed force to oust Maduro with merely 18% supportive.

The retired pilot also had concerns, even though considering the Panama operation the most successful mission of his 20-year military service. He was convinced US forces could remove Maduro, as they did Noriega. "We have significant capacity and excellent personnel. But would it be worthwhile putting all that at danger?" wondered Durant.

Prior to the Panama operation, many of American forces were based in the country, Durant commented, but it has no similar footprint in the country.

Military Assessment

The situation was also unknown how capable the Venezuelan leader's Venezuelan military were of combating against an invasion. "That to me is the greatest unknown factor," Durant stated. "They do good parades. But what can they truly do? Are they equipped? Are they funded? Are they prepared to resist? Are they faithful?"

Past Precedents

Historian Grow, a historian who authored a book about American presidents and Latin American cold war operations, saw "interesting comparisons" to past military actions.

In 1988, on the verge of Just Cause, the United States indicted Noriega for narcotics smuggling - similar to they have with Maduro who in recent times had a fifty million dollar bounty issued on his person for allegedly operating a "narco-terrorist" cartel. "Therefore ... they've established a useful excuse if they choose to undertake a military path," Grow said.

Possible Outcomes

"But I don't consider it's on the table with Trump ... These people are not neo-conservatives. They're considerably more nationalist ... I just do not see the US becoming involved in a ground conflict in South America," Grow continued, while he didn't exclude "targeted strike drone operations"

Ambassador Story, the US's top official for Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, also questioned a Panama-style onslaught was imminent: "We usually prefer overwhelming force and it would take 100,000 forces - and that is not this administration's style."

Different Approaches

But the former diplomat - who originally viewed Trump's military buildup posturing - now viewed an 80% probability of "certain aggressive action" on the country's soil in the following 30 days, possibly an air strike. "The quantity of assets that have been deployed in the zone suggest to me that we are going

Ronald Cox
Ronald Cox

A storyteller and life coach who shares real-world experiences to empower others in their personal and professional journeys.